Is Online Poker Rigged?

Complete Tests:

 

Is Online Poker Rigged?

Test Results by Site:




Bad Beat Tests - Pre-flop All-ins - Full Results

We have listed a summary of the relevant results for each bad beat test.

For completeness the spreadsheets containing the outputs of the Poker Tracker Report and the results of the analyses are available. They can be viewed in PDF format by clicking on the links below the results for each site. Please be aware that the documents are large as they contain thousands of hands.

Interpreting Results

First we compared the actual number of hands won with the expected number of hands won - the difference between these figures is the actual deviation.

The actual deviation of the 'ahead hands' was subtracted from the actual deviation of 'behind hands' to give the actual deviation of all the hands in the whole sample that were the underdog (i.e. equity < 50%). We also calculated the standard deviation for these hands - it is slightly different from the standard deviation of the whole sample because the hands that have a 50:50 chance of winning were not included.

We then calculated the 'actual deviation/standard deviation' of these hands - this number has been highlighted in each table. If you only look at one figure... this is the one to look at! If the number is positive it shows that throughout the sample the underdog has done better than expected, if it is negative the favourite has done better than expected.

Note that the margin for error for the 'actual deviation/standard deviation' in these tests is up to approximately +/-0.25. For more detail on the margin for error see the discussion page.

  • If the 'actual deviation/standard deviation' is less than 2 then this is strong evidence of no bias in the sample.

  • If the 'actual deviation/standard deviation' is greater than 5 then this is strong evidence of a bias in the sample.

  • Sometimes results will occur where the 'actual deviation/standard deviation' is slightly greater than 2 (and occasionally greater than 3). This will occur from time to time due to variance. It does not necessarily mean that a bias has been found, although it may be grounds to run further tests on a particular poker site (for example, if it was greater than 3)

For more information on interpreting deviation see this article.

i-Poker - Bad Beat Test Results

A significant bias was detected in some of the hand samples taken from the i-Poker network - therefore widespread testing was undertaken. To see the results in full please visit the i-Poker page.

PokerStars - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

 
Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 69663 35748 35850 +102 122
Ahead 50-100 36101 24002 24093 +91 88
Behind 0-50 33524 11726 11738.5 +12 85
Dominating 68-83 14766 10967 11041 +74 53
Dominated 17-32 12241 3165 3181 +16 48
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -78.6 122.2 -0.64
Whole sample: dominated -58.2 71.5 -0.81

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

Party Poker - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 11984 6267 6198.5 -68 48
Ahead 50-100 6539 4595 4567.5 -27 36
Behind 0-50 5427 1663 1622 -41 33
Dominating 68-83 3309 2552 2539.5 -12 24
Dominated 17-32 2693 611 591.5 -20 22
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -13.8 48.3 -0.28
Whole sample: dominated -7.9 32.3 -0.24

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

Ongame Network - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 12306 6457 6454.5 -2.5 50
Ahead 50-100 6636 4557 4562 +5 37
Behind 0-50 5660 1895 1887.5 -7.5 34
Dominating 68-83 3049 2312 2311.5 -0.5 23
Dominated 17-32 2337 573 560.5 -12.5 21
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -12.6 50.3 -0.25
Whole sample: dominated -12.0 31.3 -0.38

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

Merge Network - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is well within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 3822 2035 2014 -21 28
Ahead 50-100 2165 1472 1468 -4 21
Behind 0-50 1652 561 543.5 -17.5 19
Dominating 68-83 1031 775 778.5 +3.5 14
Dominated 17-32 688 169.5 170.5 +1 11
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -13.6 28.2 -0.48
Whole sample: dominated -2.9 17.8 -0.16

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

Entraction Network - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 27986 14262.5 14246 -16.5 77
Ahead 50-100 14168 9488 9527.5 +39.5 54
Behind 0-50 13818 4774.5 4718 -56.5 54
Dominating 68-83 6141 4611.5 4625 +13.5 34
Dominated 17-32 5343 1339 1291.5 -47 31
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -95.9 77.0 -1.25
Whole sample: dominated -60.6 46.1 -1.32

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

Bodog - Bad Beat Test Results

We can see from the tables below that the actual deviation is within 2 standard deviations in all cases.

Data Group Equity Range (%) Total No. Hands Expected No. Hands Won Actual No. Hands Won Actual Deviation Standard Deviation
All Hands 0-100 7775 4028 4019.5 8.5 40
Ahead 50-100 4078 2832 2861 29 28
Behind 0-50 3691 1193 1156 -37 28
Dominating 68-83 1959 1495 1484 -11 19
Dominated 17-32 1662 401 395.5 -5.5 17
 
Data Group Actual Deviation Standard Deviation Actual Deviation/Standard Deviation
Whole sample: underdog -66.0 39.6 -1.67
Whole sample: dominated +5.2 25.5 +0.21

View full results in PDF format: All Hands, Ahead, Behind, Dominating, Dominated.

More information on these bad beat tests can be found on the Explanation, Dataset, Method, Results, Conclusions & Discussion pages.